外交论谈 | 新冠疫情“兵临城下” “巴铁”兄弟如何应对？
背景
3月22日，伊姆兰·汗总理表示，巴基斯坦不能完全封锁，如果政府做出封锁决定，穷人和日薪工人将遭受巨大损失。同日，信德省首席部长穆拉德·阿里宣布从当日午夜开始在全省范围内实行封锁。
Background
巴基斯坦疫情如何，面临哪些挑战？
怎么形容巴基斯坦当前所面临的新冠病毒肺炎疫情威胁，我想起中国的一个成语“兵临城下”。一方面，全球疫情日趋严峻；一方面西部邻国伊朗现在是疫情重灾区。我有一种感觉，巴基斯坦现在已经被疫情所包围，面临着极其严重的疫情威胁。
What is the current threat of COVID-19 for Pakistan? This question reminds me of a Chinese idiom " the city is besieged by enemy troops". On one hand, the global epidemic is becoming more and more serious, and on the other hand, neighboring Iran in the west is now a disaster area. I feel that Pakistan is surrounded by the epidemic and is facing a very serious situation.
美国新增病例从26日开始加速增加
图片来源：彭博社
3月28日美国新冠肺炎确诊人数直线上升至104,839例，成为全球疫情最严重的国家。现在，巴基斯坦有1400多例，如果不立即采取最严格的防控措施，情况会怎么样，就很难说了。
On March 28, the number of confirmed cases has gone up sharply to 104,839 , which has made the United States the most seriously affected country in the world. Now, there are about 1,400 confirmed cases in Pakistan. It's hard to say what will happen if the most stringent prevention and control measures are not taken immediately.
巴基斯坦加紧了边境防控工作
中国的疫情已经得到有效控制。当时，中国疫情主要集中在湖北省首府武汉市，中国其他地区不十分严重。而巴基斯坦的疫情遍及全国各地，信德省和旁遮普省最严重，俾路支省、开普省、吉尔吉特-巴尔蒂斯坦以及首都伊斯兰堡都不少。
The epidemic in China has now been effectively controlled. At that time, the epidemic was mainly in Wuhan, the capital of Hubei Province, and it was not very serious in the rest of China. But in Pakistan, the epidemic has spread all over the country. It is the most serious in Sindh Province and Punjab Province and there are also many confirmed cases in Balochistan, Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa, Gilgit-Baltistan and Islamabad.
目前巴全国各地已加设关卡和增加检查人员
首都伊斯兰堡等重点城市由军队协助监管
由于疫情日益严重，巴基斯坦政府逐步推出一些控制措施：
Due to the increasing severity of the epidemic, the Pakistani government has gradually taken some control measures:
3月23日
巴基斯坦联邦政府协同各省政府，在全国部署军队对主要城市实施封锁。
On March 23, after consultation with the provincial governments, the federal government of Pakistan began to deploy troops throughout the country to block major cities.
3月24日
巴基斯坦民航局宣布，从3月26日至4月2日，暂停国内所有类型飞机的飞行；在首都伊斯兰堡，停止所有公共交通服务，并要求除大型百货超市和药店外的所有商店关门。
On March 24, Pakistan Civil Aviation Administration announced that from March 26 to April 2, flight of all types of aircraft in the country would be suspended; in the capital Islamabad, all public transport services have been stopped, and all shops except large department stores and drugstores have been closed.
作为巴基斯坦的朋友，我想说一句心里话，这些措施还远不能有效控制疫情的快速蔓延。
As a friend of Pakistan, I would like to say that these measures are far from enough in controlling the rapid spread of the epidemic.
新冠病毒的传播能力非常强，传播速度非常快。现在，巴基斯坦的确诊病例约1400例，一传十就是14000人。
The spread ability of COVID-19 is very strong, and the spread speed is very fast. Now, there are about 1,400 confirmed cases in Pakistan, and if 10 people are infected by one person, that is 140,000 cases.
巴基斯坦民众
巴基斯坦是全球人口大国之一，超过2亿，卡拉奇人口2300多万，拉合尔人口1000多万，而且巴基斯坦的人口密度超过中国，中国是145人/平方公里，巴基斯坦是256人/平方公里。
Pakistan is one of the most populous countries in the world, with a population of more than 200 million, 23 million in Karachi and 10 million in Lahore. The population density of Pakistan is higher than that of China. In China, there are 145 people per square kilometer and in Pakistan, there are 256 people per square kilometer.
因此，如果不立即采取最严格的防控措施，后果不堪设想。
Therefore, if we do not take strictest and most effective prevention and control measures immediately, the consequences will be unimaginable.
在封锁与经济之间该如何取舍？
巴专业卫生团队参加公共系统疫情防控工作
防控疫情，最有效的办法就是阻断人口的流动。中央政府一声令下，中国人都从国家和民族利益出发，自觉服从呆在家里不外出。
We believe that the most effective way to prevent and control the epidemic is to block the flow of population. Under the command of the central government, the Chinese people all consciously stayed at home in consideration of national interests.
伊姆兰·汗发表国家卫生安全讲话
疫情当下，巴基斯坦政府起初对于封城有点举棋不定，伊姆兰·汗总理曾表示在巴基斯坦封城实难做到，如果封城会有大批人口饿死。
At the moment of the epidemic, the Pakistani government initially seemed uncertain about the closure of the cities. Prime Minister Imran Khan once said that it would be difficult to do so in Pakistan. If the cities were closed, a large number of people would starve to death.
巴基斯坦与伊朗边境的临时隔离设施
我完全理解巴基斯坦政府的苦衷。巴基斯坦穷人占比较高，他们靠日薪糊口，如果封城，就会失去每天少得可怜的收入，无法继续养活全家人。
I fully understand the difficulties faced by the Pakistani government. Pakistan has a relatively high proportion of poor people who depend on their daily income to support their families. If the cities are closed, they will lose their poor daily income and cannot continue to support their families.
巴基斯坦街上的民众
3月26日，我对巴基斯坦朋友说过一句话：尽管伊姆兰·汗总理曾强调巴基斯坦不能封城，我看急剧恶化的疫情可能逼迫巴基斯坦政府最后作出封城的决定，但到那时封城已晚矣。时隔两日，我今天看到一条消息说，巴基斯坦已经开始在全国各地实施极其严格的封城措施。
On March 26, I said a word to a friend from Pakistan: "Although Prime Minister Imran Khan has stressed that Pakistan cannot seal the cities, I think the sharp deterioration of the epidemic may force the Pakistani government to finally decide to seal the cities, but by then it will be too late." Two days later, I saw a piece of information that Pakistan has begun to implement extremely strict closure measures across the country.
巴基斯坦是个农业人口比重超过43%的国家，全国7500万劳动力约有2/5在农村。一旦新冠病毒在农村蔓延，将使巴基斯坦农业遭受致命打击。
Pakistan is a country with an agricultural population of more than 43%, and about two-fifths of the country's 75 million labor force is in the countryside. Once the epidemic spreads in rural areas, Pakistan's agriculture will suffer a fatal blow.
巴基斯坦街景
今后一段时间，巴基斯坦为控制疫情，会减少婚丧嫁娶活动，关闭赌博娱乐设施，高档酒店入住率会下降，社会功能性服务会下滑。还有，由于供应链的断裂，涉及国计民生的面粉产业和食糖产业将受到严重影响，物价可能会持续上涨。
In order to control the epidemic, Pakistan will reduce wedding and funeral parties, close gambling and entertainment facilities, and occupancy rate of high-end hotels and social functional services will decline. In addition, due to the disruption of the supply chain, the flour and sugar industries related to people's livelihood will be seriously affected, and prices may continue to rise.
侨汇是巴基斯坦外汇主要来源，鉴于中东和欧美国家先后进入疫情的初始期和高峰期，因此在中东和欧美国家工作的巴基斯坦人向国内汇款会大幅减少。
In Pakistan, overseas remittance is the main source of foreign exchange. Since the Middle East and European and American countries have entered the initial stage and peak period of the epidemic successively, Pakistanis working in the Middle East, Europe and the United States will have a significant reduction of remittance.
民众自发戴口罩参加宣传活动
同样，巴基斯坦的出口订单会迅速减少。考试延期、学校关门、商务会议停止、私营企业倒闭、失业增加将成为常态。
Similarly, Pakistan's export will decrease rapidly. Examination delay, school closing, private enterprise closing down and unemployment increasing will seriously affect the economy and people's normal life.
无正当理由擅自外出者将受到惩罚
（这个动作在巴是非常传统的惩戒方式，
老师通常会这样惩罚不听话的顽皮学生）
封城与经济是辩证的关系。从短期看，封城当然影响经济，影响每一个人的生活，但如果不封城导致疫情大规模爆发，整个经济就会受到致命性打击。通过封城遏制人员流动，让所有人尽可能留在家中，就能有效减缓病毒的传播速度。
The relationship between economy and sealing off the cities from all outside contact is dialectical. In the short term, the closure of the cities certainly affects the economy and everyone's life, but if the cities are not closed, leading to a large-scale outbreak of the epidemic, the whole economy will be fatally hit for decades. By blocking the flow of population and keeping everyone at home as much as possible, we can effectively slow down the spread of the virus.
背景
据巴基斯坦《黎明报》3 月19日报道，18日巴计划部与亚开行、世行等国际金融组织召开会议，讨论巴疫情应对和开展国际合作相关措施。
据悉，亚开行和世行决定向巴提供5.88亿美元贷款，其中亚开行贷款3.5亿美元，世行贷款2.38亿美元，主要用于抗击疫情以减少疫情对巴社会经济的冲击。
同时，为帮助企业应对全球新冠肺炎疫情带来的挑战，巴央行3月17日将基准利率下调75个基点至12.5％，为8个月新低。同时，巴国家银行公布金融支持政策，帮助不同行业企业渡过难关。
Background
巴方是否有支撑抗击疫情的经济实力？
要说巴基斯坦有没有经济实力支撑抗击疫情，我想起了中国的抗日战争和解放战争，想起了阿富汗战争。
Whether Pakistan has the economic strength to support the fight against the epidemic, reminds me of China's Anti-Japanese War and War of Liberation, and the wars in Afghanistan.
解放前的中国非常贫穷，根本谈不上什么经济实力，可是凭着一种不屈不挠的民族精神，中国人民在中国共产党的领导下战胜了日本侵略者，消灭了800万蒋匪军。
Before liberation, China was very poor and had no economic strength at all. However, with an indomitable national spirit, the Chinese people, under the leadership of the Communist Party of China, defeated the Japanese invaders and wiped out 8 million Chiang Kai Shek's army.
阿富汗有什么经济实力，可阿富汗先后打败了苏联的入侵和美国的武装占领。
Afghanistan has never had economic power, but Afghanistan defeated not only the Soviet invasion, but also the armed occupation of the United States.
阿富汗首都喀布尔屡遭恐怖袭击
主要由于20年的阿富汗战争以及由此引起的恐怖主义，巴基斯坦社会经济遭受重创，经济和财政长期处于困难状态。巴基斯坦的经济总量才3128亿美元，人均GDP才1560美元，是世界上最贫穷国家之一。
Pakistan's economy has suffered a lot, and its economy and finance have been in a difficult state for a long time, mainly due to the 20-year war in Afghanistan and terrorism caused by the war. Pakistan's total economy is only 312.8 billion U.S. dollars, and its per capita GDP is only 1560 U.S. dollars, making it one of the poorest countries in the world.
巴基斯坦东部旁遮普省奥卡拉地区，
儿童在田地里驱赶蝗虫
现在，巴基斯坦又双重受灾，一方面要抗击疫情，一方面要抗击蝗灾。但我感觉巴基斯坦这个民族有很强的韧性，有勇于战胜各种困难的勇气。因此，相信巴基斯坦政府、军队和人民有能力克服困难取得抗击疫情的最后胜利。
Now, Pakistan is suffering from double disasters. On one hand, it needs to fight against the epidemic, on the other hand, it needs to fight against the locust disaster. But I feel that Pakistan has a strong tenacity and the courage to overcome all kinds of difficulties. Therefore, I firmly believe that the Pakistani government, military and people have the ability to overcome difficulties and achieve final victory in fighting the epidemic.
在巴基斯坦遭遇灾难的时候，国际社会在向巴提供援助。其中，巴基斯坦准备向国际货币基金组织、世界银行、亚洲开发银行借贷37亿美元。
At the time of Pakistan's disaster, international community is providing assistance to Pakistan.The International Monetary Fund, the world bank and the Asian Development Bank have almost agreed to lent Pakistan a total of 3.7 billion U.S. dollars.
中国抗疫医生与巴基斯坦医生远程连线
传授国内治疗新冠肺炎经验
中国和巴基斯坦是患难与共的朋友。巴基斯坦出现疫情后，中方在第一时间与巴方分享新冠肺炎的防控方案和诊疗方案以及新冠肺炎知识库，并通过视频会议向巴方同行详细介绍中方防控和诊疗经验，就巴方同行关心的议题进行交流。
China and Pakistan are friends who share weal and woe. After the outbreak of the epidemic in Pakistan, the Chinese side has lost no time in sharing prevention and control programs, diagnosis and treatment programs and knowledge base of COVID-19. Video conferences have been held to introduce the Chinese experience to the Pakistani counterparts about how to deal with COVID-19, and the two sides have exchanged ideas on issues of common concern.
中国援助巴基斯坦抗疫物资抵达卡拉奇机场
中方已经分4批向巴方提供检测试剂、医用防护服、医用N95口罩、医用外科口罩、呼吸机等医疗物资。
China has provided Pakistan with test kits, medical protective clothing, medical N95 masks, medical surgical masks, respirators and other medical materials in four batches.
同时，应巴方要求，中方积极筹组抗疫医疗专家组赴巴基斯坦。中国专家组将赴巴基斯坦各地，与巴基斯坦兄弟开展现场技术交流和经验分享。
At the same time, at the request of the Pakistani side, the Chinese side has organized an anti-epidemic medical expert group to visit Pakistan. The Chinese expert group will go to all parts of Pakistan to carry out on-site technical exchanges and experience sharing with Pakistan brothers.
中国政府赴巴基斯坦抗疫医疗专家组
从乌鲁木齐市启程
中方还将支持巴方建设一所临时隔离医院。中国企业和民间力量也在积极援助巴基斯坦。其中，马云基金会和阿里巴巴基金会向巴基斯坦捐赠的口罩等防疫物资于3月25日运抵卡拉奇；中国新疆应吉尔吉特-巴尔蒂斯坦要求，也向该地区提供了紧急防疫物资援助。
China will also support Pakistan in building a temporary isolation hospital. Chinese enterprises and non-government organizations are also actively assisting Pakistan. Among them, the masks and other anti-epidemic materials donated by Ma Yun foundation and Alibaba foundation to Pakistan arrived in Karachi on March 25; Xinjiang of China, at the request of Gilgit-Baltistan, has also provided anti-epidemic material assistance to the region.
文字 | 成锡忠 图片 | 网络编辑 | 外交官说事儿 元元
作者简介
成锡忠，西南政法大学特聘教授、察哈尔学会高级研究员、央视英文频道特约评论员、中国南亚学会理事、北京中安华盾咨询服务有限公司常务顾问。
毕业于解放军国际关系学院，曾在驻南亚国家使馆工作，任驻印度、巴基斯坦副武官，驻尼泊尔国防武官，以及联合国驻刚果（金）首席军事观察员，具有20多年从事外交、安全、维和的海外工作经验，长期从事国际战略和海外安全问题研究。
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